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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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