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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.